The crypto ecosystem: key elements and risks
Report submitted to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.
国际清算银行 |11 七月 2023
This report reviews the key elements of the crypto ecosystem and assesses their structural flaws. There are three main takeaways. First, due to underlying economic incentives, the crypto ecosystem is characterised by congestion and high fees, which lead to fragmentation. Second, despite an original ethos of decentralisation, crypto and decentralised finance (DeFi) often feature substantial de-facto centralisation, which introduces various risks. Third, while DeFi mostly replicates services offered by the traditional financial system, it amplifies known risks. Moreover, as DeFi does not finance activity in the real economy, its growth is driven by the speculative influx of new users, with substantial risks to investors. The report outlines policy options to mitigate the multiple risks crypto poses to investors, the traditional financial system and the economy at large.
https://www.bis.org/publ/othp72.htm
https://www.bis.org/publ/othp72.pdf
1.Introduction
The market capitalisation of the crypto ecosystem – notwithstanding a significant decline in 2022 – lies in the trillions of dollars, and there are thousands of crypto coins in circulation. The spread of crypto has been global in nature and driven by a wide range of investors.
In theory, the crypto universe builds on the premise of decentralisation. Rather than relying on central bank money and trusted intermediaries, crypto envisages that the recordkeeping of transfers is provided by a multitude of anonymous validators. Decentralised finance, or “DeFi”, seeks to replicate conventional financial services in a decentralised way within the crypto universe, often underpinned by the medium of exchange role of stablecoins. DeFi incorporates innovations such as programmability and composability on blockchains.1 Such systems are “always on”, allowing for worldwide transactions 24 hours per day, seven days per week.
Recent events revealed a wide divergence between the crypto vision and reality. Although crypto operates under the banner of decentralisation, in practice new centralised intermediaries have played a key role in channelling funds into the crypto universe and intermediating within it. The implosion of the FTX crypto exchange is only the most notable manifestation of the sector’s vulnerabilities. Rather than providing a more resilient financial architecture, crypto displayed the same well known vulnerabilities of traditional finance, but in amplified ways.
This report reviews the key elements of the crypto ecosystem and assesses its structural flaws. It then goes over the risks that it poses and discusses options for addressing them. It also identifies data gaps and discusses ways to alleviate them.
The report has three key takeaways. First, the crypto ecosystem is subject to a high degree of fragmentation and is characterised by congestion and high fees. This would have been the case even if it had stayed true to its original decentralised ethos. These structural flaws derive from the underlying economics of incentives of validators rather than from technology. And while crypto has offered some elements of genuine innovation, these can be replicated or embedded in the safer and more trusted traditional finance system (BIS (2023)). Second, despite an original ethos of decentralisation, crypto and DeFi often feature substantial de facto centralisation, which introduces various pain points. A prime example concerns stablecoins, which piggyback on the credibility of the central bank’s unit of account and may pose risks to monetary sovereignty. Third, while DeFi mostly replicates services offered by the traditional financial system, it does not finance any activity in the real economy but amplifies known risks. As growth is driven mainly by the speculative influx of new users hoping for high returns, crypto and DeFi pose substantial risks to (especially retail) investors. In sum, crypto’s inherent structural flaws make it unsuitable to play a constructive role in the monetary system (BIS (2022)).
2.1 Unbacked crypto
The birth of crypto dates to the introduction of Bitcoin in 2009: a decentralised, peer-to-peer means of transferring value on a shared public ledger (ie a public blockchain using distributed ledger technology (DLT)). In its original formulation, crypto was characterised by not being backed by any asset, as well as by a stated claim to reduce the influence of intermediaries through decentralisation (Nakamoto (2008)).
Ownership of crypto assets and transactions with them are verified by decentralised validators and recorded on the public ledger. If a seller wants to transfer cryptoassets to a buyer, the buyer (identified through their cryptographic digital signature) broadcasts the transaction details, eg transacting parties, amount or fees. Validators (in some networks called “miners”) then compete to verify the transaction, and whoever is selected to verify appends the list of transactions to the blockchain and is compensated in fees paid in cryptoassets. The updated blockchain is then shared among all miners and users. In this way, the history of all transactions is publicly observable and tied to specific wallets, while the true identities of the parties behind transactions (ie the owners of the wallets) remain undisclosed. In this sense, transactions on blockchains are pseudo-anonymous. By broadcasting all information publicly, the system verifies that every transaction is consistent with the history of transfers on the blockchain, eg that the cryptocurrency actually belongs to the seller and has not been spent more than once.
As cryptoassets started attracting broader attention from potential investors, centralised entities played a greater role in channelling funds into crypto coins. In particular, centralised exchanges, which facilitated the conversion between Bitcoin, other cryptoassets and fiat money, contributed to rising crypto prices by attracting new participants, in a self-reinforcing loop. Centralised intermediaries (notably platforms such as Mt Gox in the early days, and more recently Binance, Coinbase, Kraken and FTX until its sudden collapse in late 2022) have reasserted their key role in the crypto ecosystem time and time again. This system has come to be known within the crypto space as centralised finance (CeFi), and its ups and downs have contributed to the volatility of cryptoasset prices ces (Graph 1.A).
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